The experts of the International Labor Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predict that next year a number of developed and developing countries will face mass unemployment and “catastrophic shortage” of jobs. In the alarmist report, the experts urge the countries to take drastic measures to combat unemployment.
Since the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2008, developing and developed countries lost 20 million jobs. By the end of next year additional 20 million jobs could be lost. According to some experts, the number of unemployed worldwide has reached 200 million. The current pace of employment growth in the leading countries is inadequate. In the Group of Twenty the increase is approximately 1% per year, while there is need for it to be at least 1.3% in the next four years.
“We must act immediately and stimulate the process of job growth to offset the losses. Stabilization of the employment level should be a priority in macroeconomic policy”, wrote the authors of the report. However, the report questioned the fact that these figures are achievable, indicating that the increase in the number of jobs in India and China is directly related to the loss of those in Western countries.
The situation in Europe is particularly difficult. While Germany is relatively successful in coping with unemployment, the second euro-zone economy, France, is in a difficult situation. There is a new concept of “superfluous people” as a result of chronic unemployment. Mostly, these are young people who are the first to lose jobs in downsizing.
For example, in Italy, every other unemployed person cannot find a job for over a year, and in South Africa this number is two out of three. The authors point out that youth unemployment is rising in 15 countries out of 20. According to the estimates of the International Labor Organization, in Russia the number of new jobs is approximately equal to the number of people who get jobs – approximately 600,000. However, the state apparatus and the sector of public services are growing, while the number employed in manufacturing continues to decline.
There is still a relatively high level of long-term unemployment, which is nearly the same among the residents of villages and cities. Among the rural population the share of long-term unemployed is 32.8%, among urban – 32.3%.
This increases the “underground” employment. According to the ILO, informal employment in Russia is 10% and is nearly one and a half times the rate of unemployment.
“We must act now to change the situation with a slowdown in employment growth and restore the lost jobs,” said director general of the International Labor Organization, Juan Somavia. “Creating employment should be the main macroeconomic priority.”
In addition, the report’s authors believe it is necessary for the states – members of the G20 to raise the level of social protection of its own people and pay attention to the negative forecasts of the economists who talk about the possibility of a second wave of crisis in 2012.