“There are several reasons for that. The demography, peculiarities of the previous development, including economic and political development. The foreign influence also matters. As for the West, it traditionally tries to leave competitors behind claiming that the people are always right, whereas the rulers are always not right. They follow this rule even if it is their ally that suffers from national riots. This is exactly what happened to Egypt’s Mubarak.
“Such an approach plays a bad trick on the West. Western leaders do not realize that the people of the region understand democracy as a right of the majority to command the minority and even kill the minority, if needed. Everyone follows this principle – from authoritarian leaders to monarchs. Once the previous rulers are toppled, Islamists may try to come to power.”
“Isn’t the political establishment of the USA and other countries of the West able to plan how the situation may develop?
“The Western, especially the American elite is preoccupied with Utopian ideas to build democracy all over the globe. Like communists, they hols themselves hostage to their own ideological conceptions. Let’s take Brzezinski, for example, whom they always listen to in Washington. Issues of his origin permeate through everything that he says. He doesn’t have any reason to like Russia and the Jews, and this is reflected in his recommendations to the US administration.”
“How can the situation develop in this connection?”
“Practically all countries of the region may explode any moment. The frontiers, which the colonialists drew the way that they wanted, just with a ruler, are falling apart. It all started with Sudan. They officially confirmed it a month ago, and other countries may take it as a signal for action.”
“What other countries in particular?”
“The situation on the Arabic Peninsula is especially alarming because of Iran. North Africa is the primary hotspot for the time being, though. No one knows what is going to happen in Libya next. For the time being, one may say that there is a large-scale civil war going on, and the foreign interference in that war will grow. It is not ruled out that Gaddafi may use sarin or yperite against his enemies. He may as well explode oil pipelines and so on – all of that may last for a very long time.
“The situation in Algeria is not an easy one either. Ten years ago, its president Bouteflika stated that Islamists had been destroyed in the country and that the civil war had been won. As history showed, it was not really so. It seems that a new round of struggle is about to begin, and this struggle may not end the way the sitting Algerian authorities want it to end.
“Bouteflika ruined the ties with the Berbers, with Kabils, first and foremost. What is worse, hundreds of trained Mujahideens came from Iraq and Afghanistan to replace the killed Islamists. I believe that the conflict in the country may grow and expand quickly.
“When we speak about Libya and Algeria, one shouldn’t forget about Egypt, where events are only beginning to develop. Let’s take, for example, El Baradei, who was said to become the “democratic leader of the new Egypt. Islamists are much stronger than him. They are ready to die for power and this is the biggest thing that they want – to have power in their hands.
“The situation in Egypt looks hopeless. There are over 80 million people living there on an overcrowded territory, and the number of people continues to grow. Egypt can handle an addition of 5 or 6 million people. If the number is larger, a humanitarian catastrophe will occur in the country.”
“Some experts say that this instability may touch upon other countries as well, not just the Muslim or Arab countries alone. Is it really so?”
“It is possible, of course. It is now turn for the countries of tropical Africa. That part of Africa has always been troubled by conflicts, even during the post-colonial period. Nowadays, such countries as Burundi intend to restrict water supplies downstream the Nile to Sudan and Egypt. The current situation in this region is extremely explosive.”
Sergey Balmasov
Pravda.Ru